Executive Summary
The global HIV epidemic remains a defining challenge. As of 2024, 40.8 million people live with HIV. Eastern and Southern Africa account for over half of all PLHIV, yet most revenue is realized in North America and Europe. For a new entrant, Southern Africa offers a high-volume, tender-driven market dominated by institutional buyers like the Global Fund and PEPFAR.
Epidemiology & Market Size
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| People living with HIV | 40.8 million [1,2] |
| New HIV infections | 1.3 million [2] |
| AIDS-related deaths | 630,000 [1,2] |
| On antiretroviral therapy | 31.6 million [2] |
| Global HIV drugs market | ≈USD 36B |
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
High volume of PLHIV in Southern Africa; alignment with global elimination goals (UNAIDS 95-95-95); centralized tenders.
Weaknesses
Low per-patient margins relative to US/EU; heavy dependence on institutional buyers; complex regulatory processes.
Opportunities
Scale-up of long-acting injectables (cabotegravir, lenacapavir); expansion into West/Central African markets.
Threats
Donor funding cuts; aggressive price competition from generic manufacturers; emerging drug resistance.
PESTLE Analysis
- Political: Dependence on donor country will (PEPFAR, Global Fund) and national health priorities.
- Economic: Constrained national budgets and currency fluctuations versus predictable donor envelopes.
- Social: Persistent stigma limiting care; high need for discreet long-acting regimens.
- Technological: Innovation in long-acting ART and digital supply-chain tools.
- Legal: Increasing use of voluntary licensing via the Medicines Patent Pool.
- Environmental: Pressure to reduce medical waste and ensure supply chain resilience.